The Most Consequential Matchups of Week 1 of College Football
College football is BACK and it couldn’t come at a better time. The world is burning and descending into a dark age reminiscent of post-Roman-Empire Western Europe…but enough about offseason decisions on conference realignment. It’s time for the talk to stop and let the scoreboard tell the story. No more whining from Nick Saban on injured skill players during so-called “rebuilding years.” No more trash talk from Florida players who are 1-2 vs. Georgia. No more guessing whether Lincoln Riley is the guy to turn around USC after losing every semifinal game in his CFP career. Let’s dig in to the most notable matchups of the first week of the regular season.
Nebraska at Northwestern
Is this going to be the end of the Scott Frost era? Five years after claiming a national championship at UCF despite playing no one of note in the regular season, and sneaking by a depleted Auburn in a bowl game, Scott Frost has been a disaster at Nebraska. Now he has to avoid sucking on a different continent. One of the bizarre up-and-coming Coach stories could be coming to an end.
Gun to my head, taking Northwestern +13.5
WVU at #17 Pitt
JT Daniels, a quarterback I wanted to start at Georgia most of the season due to some frustrating moments from Stetson Bennett (before he went full clutch gene in the playoffs), has transferred to WVU and will start against a Pitt team that had a pretty solid year last year. With WVU starting a former 5 star QB and playing in a couple of Appalachian blood-feud ACC games (Pitt & Virginia Tech), can WVU make a push in the Big 12 as Oklahoma breaks in a new HC and Sarkisian faces the pressure (again) of high expectations at Texas? Can Pitt make a run at the ACC championship this season after beating Clemson last year, or are they nothing without Pickett?
No idea who is going to win this one, but the over (>51) looks good here.
#3 Georgia vs. #11 Oregon
You know I had to do it. After a historic draft class from UGA’s Natty team, there’s been a lot of talk over whether UGA will be a one-hit wonder like Coach O’s LSU. LSU had a “historic” offense, UGA had a “historic” defense. The big questions are how big of a step back does UGA’s young defense take and can the offense compensate at a high enough level to make up for it? Oregon will be a great test for this as they return many starters on offense and defense whom beat Ohio State in Columbus last year. Yes, they’ll have a first year coaching staff and will likely start Bo Nix at QB, but they’re still a talented team with a solid defense. UGA is favored -17.5, so I think a dominant win scoring over 30 points and holding Oregon to 10 or fewer should set a high bar for UGA moving forward. An upset makes Oregon a frontrunner to make the CFP as the PAC12 isn’t exactly a gauntlet.
I’d take Georgia to win outright -900, but if you want a better return on your money, Georgia -17.5 seems realistic. I won’t touch the over/under here.
#5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State
Notre Dame always seems to be given the benefit of the doubt in rankings. There is no doubt Brian Kelly left behind a talented team (in the middle of the night) to an incumbent defensive coach, but Notre Dame is a perennial underachiever in the context of what the AP seems to think of them. Well, this year we get to test their defense against what is expected to be the most explosive offense in college football, and we get to see whether Ohio State has found a championship defense, since last season their defense was abysmal. Vegas seems to be expecting a bloodbath, with the over/under and spread indicating a 37-21.5 tOSU win. While the talking heads seem to love Ohio State’s Natty chances, the money men don’t seem to have much faith in the defense, again. Every Natty winner in recent history was top 10 in both defense and offense except for 2019 LSU. Ohio State needs to hold ND to under 20 in my opinion.
Again, the money line isn’t great here at tOSU -700, but I trust it more than the -15.5 spread. I like the over (>58.5) more than the spread.
#7 Utah at Florida
While Utah won the PAC12 last year over an Oregon team that beat Ohio State and almost beat Ohio State itself in a bowl game, it’s odd that they’re only favored over UFraud, with a first year HC, by -2.5. Florida has talent, but if they’re that close to Utah, why aren’t they ranked? This is an odd matchup, but I guess it will be interesting to see what Florida will look like under Billy Bob Napier and if there’s any reason to think they can make a push on the SEC East anytime soon.
Florida is an absolute disaster. Utah -140 is a better value than Utah -2.5. SEC vs PAC12 or not, I need to see something out of Florida to believe they can compete with a ranked team
#22 Cincinnati vs #19 Arkansas
Can the 1st G5 team to ever make the playoff compete with a rising Arkansas team? I’m actually a huge fan of Pittman’s coordinator picks, so I don’t think the Arkansas -6.5 line is fair. Yes, Fickell’s Cincy played a mediocre 2020 Georgia team very close and actually put up a decent fight against Bama, holding their Heisman QB and Jameson Williams to lower passing/receiving numbers than UGA did in either matchup. A big win here for Arkansas could conceivably put them in the conversation for an SEC West top 3 finish. A sizable Cincinnati win could open the door for another G5 team to get in the playoff, which could spell trouble for P5 teams that will have a case for a playoff appearance.
My gut says Arkansas -270 and I actually like the under here.