No, the Sky is Not Falling, Georgia Fans
Georgia has to have the most toxic fan base in college football. I thought after two Natties in a row, won with offenses led by the most loathed multi-season starting QB in Georgia history, some of the ninny-baby whining would fizzle out. No such luck.
We’re scoring 39 points per game and people are dying to bench Carson Beck and fire Mike Bobo. By comparison, Alabama is scoring 32 points per game, Ohio State 35, Michigan 35, and Texas 36. FSU is the only team in the top 5 with more points per game than UGA (44). Beck has been great, with a high completion percentage and, frankly, would have zero interceptions if his receivers made a play on those two particular passes like they were supposed to. The only thing making Georgia seem beatable right now are two things in particular—turnovers and missing on explosive plays. More on that in a moment.
Georgia’s defense has now given up 4 TDs in 2 conference games. In the context of the past two seasons, that feels like a lot, but only 2 of those TDs were on drives longer than 50 yards. In fact, 3 of the 8 TDs Georgia has given up this season were short drives off turnovers. In the past two seasons, 2021 especially, Georgia could count on its defense to bail out its offense if a turnover created a short field. That level of defensive success is unsustainable. You can’t keep putting your defense’s back against the wall. And, I don’t expect Georgia will, because Kirby watches this stuff like a hawk. You can expect to revert to the mean at some point. We’re still only giving up just 13 points per game, and I’m not going to complain about a 26 point per game point differential.
At the end of the day, no one would be sweating over Georgia if we started hitting one or two more explosive plays per game and cut back on negative-field-position turnovers. It’s a big math problem. Say an explosive play is a play generating 20+ yards. That should result in either a FG or TD opportunity. So, let’s be conservative and say Georgia averages an extra 3.5 points per game (half a touchdown) off of additional explosive plays. Then, we look at turnovers and points off turnovers. Georgia’s offense has 3 INTs and 7 fumbles (thankfully, only 3 fumbles have resulted in turnovers). So, 6 turnovers in 5 games, with 3 resulting in opposing TDs. Cut it by a third. We already know both of Beck’s INTs were not his fault. It’s realistic. So, now, you’re taking back 7 points over 5 games. Round it down to 1 point per game. So now your season average is 42 points scored per game versus 12 points given up per game, with points for and against converging slightly as you play better teams deeper into the season. You’ll find yourself in a very dominant place, comparable to 2021 & 2022 Georgia.
Let’s put this in real life terms. Georgia hits one of the first half explosives Beck missed vs SC. Now you’re looking at a 31-14 win. Then you say Beck hits Delp on the seam route at Auburn and Delp doesn’t fumble at midfield in that same game. Now you’re looking at a 34-13 win. So then your record looks like this:
48-7 vs UTM
45-3 vs Ball St
31-14 vs SC
49-21 vs UAB
34-13 at Auburn
Much more palatable, right? Feels like a mix between the 2021 & 2022 teams. People seem to forget this underwhelming stretch the 2022 team had in the first 5 games, followed by a remaining season of dominance (except for the Peach Bowl):
All we need is for Carson to start hitting more of these downfield passes he is missing by mere inches and have fewer turnovers in negative territory. Absolutely realistic and doable.
So calm down, Georgia fans. Don’t whine. Get off the ledge, log out of the message boards, and for goodness sake someone tell Brandon Adams to stop being a buzzkill. Wins shouldn’t feel like losses because we’re not blowing out teams by 4 TDs every single game, especially in the SEC when everyone is gunning for you. We still have everything we want well ahead of us, including our best football.
Go Dawgs!