As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese.
I was an LSU pick-six away from being completely and utterly WRONG on every single pick last week. And yet, somehow, I still have more credibility than the US Government.
I’m truly at a loss for words. Part of that is because I’m still shocked that I watched the best regular season team in Braves franchise history get put to sleep, quietly and without a fight, by the Phillies. Pathetic. The other part of that is that I was so sure TAMU was going to beat Alabama and that Miami was going to crush Georgia Tech. I’m not sure how, at this point, Jimbo Fisher is still employed and how Mario Cristobal isn’t also a hot seat candidate after the embarrassing finish this past week. Truly mind-boggling.
I’m going with my gut this week, let’s see if we can hit this 170x parlay or whatever and forget last week happened.
Georgia -31.5
I hate big spreads, usually, but it has been something crazy like 5 seasons since Vandy has scored a TD against Georgia. Despite whiny Georgia fans whining about Georgia’s defense for giving up an average of 13 points per game, I wouldn’t be surprised if Georgia shut out Vandy. But, that’s not all. Georgia is also going to take the opportunity to work on its explosive plays, downfield passes, and perimeter runs against a conference foe that is, talent-wise, a step above Ball State, UAB, and UT Martin while not quite being at the level of a South Carolina or Auburn.
Arkansas +19.5 at Alabama
Most people are looking at Arkansas’ 2-4 record and are probably thinking, damn, Sam Pittman is screwed. And they’d be right. I love Sam for the showman and ambassador he is for the sport, but I don’t know if he survives this season. It’s not like Arkansas is getting blown out, though. Three of their four losses are 1 possession and they lost to A&M and LSU by 12 and 3, respectively. They’re close to being a good team. But how many years are ADs giving head coaches these days to turn around a program? Anyways, just like Vegas, putting the over/under at 46, I can see a low scoring sleeper, like a 24-14. Even 24-7 covers.
Oregon +3 at Washington, over 66
Two Heisman-contending quarterbacks in a PAC12 game. Not going to make the mistake of outsmarting myself and picking the under. It’s going to be a 40-something to 30-something classic. I’m leaning Ducks, because I think Dan Lanning is a special coach. He’s going to come out aggressive.
Tennessee -3 vs Texas A&M
Maybe I’m just mad at A&M for losing a game to Alabama that they should have won, but they’re not giving me a lot of confidence going into Neyland for a 3:30 PM SEC on CBS game. Tennessee is still in the East race, and while they’re not the Tennessee of last season, they’re playing very well at home where Joe Milton can hear his signals and opposing offenses cannot.
SC vs UF, over 50
South Carolina laid a big-ole egg at Neyland last week, but now they’re at home against a mid Florida team with a stout defense. Sounds like a recipe for the under, right? Maybe, if South Carolina’s defense wasn’t such trash. I think Rattler keeps SC in the game longer than Florida would like, with either side winning 30-something to 20-something.
VT (-120) vs Wake Forest
Virginia Tech has come into its own the past two games with Kyron Drones taking the helm at QB. If you take away the first quarter of the FSU game, Tech played pretty well against a team that is far more talented than itself. I don’t think moral victories ultimately play well in the locker room, but Tech at home against a team in its weight class is not a bad bet right now.
Flier
Mizzou +2 at Kentucky
Mark Stoops made the news for the wrong reason after getting curb stomped by Georgia in Sanford Stadium by implying that Georgia has used NIL to “buy” very good players, and that unhappy fans should give more money to Kentucky’s NIL collective if they want to be able to compete with top tier teams like Georgia on the field. Maybe there is some truth to that in terms of NIL being a way for 2nd tier teams to win more recruiting battles against top tier teams than they used to, but that’s not the only factor in recruiting. I would say this was a really bad miscue by Stoops in the sense that locker room morale has to already be low after getting spanked on national television, and now the coach is on his radio show saying he needs better players? Oof. He should have kept that to himself. Now, after using the excuse that his team can’t beat elite teams because of the roster, he has a Mizzou team in Kentucky’s weight class that almost took down LSU coming to town. Seems like one of those stories that ends poetically with Mizz taking down Kentucky.
By the way, I don’t have a bet on the Auburn at LSU game, but I’m so excited about this low-key rivalry game. I think Auburn might surprise some people, but I’m not ready to put my money on it.