As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese.
After a big money-making week, it’s only natural that I get hit with a heavy dose of RAT POISON. I gave a disclaimer last week that it was going to be a rough week, but I didn’t think we’d be under .500 with our picks, including getting swept on our confidence picks. It makes you wonder if there’s even one team you can have faith in, gambling or otherwise. You now have Kirby Smart allegedly tanking a game against a MAC opponent in order to give his young team a taste of adversity before getting into the meat of the schedule. Imagine having such a dominant team you have to almost throw a game to have your team experience pressure. It really messes with spread bets when you are using lesser teams as practice. Georgia might be best as a money line bet moving forward…we shall see.
So, instead of breaking down what we were right and wrong about last week, I think instead we need to have an intervention for the benefit of Texas fans. It’s time for y’all to stop calling Texas a “blue blood.”
To be a blue blood, you have to be a relevant force in college football for multiple generations. Large amounts of money behind the program and the brand is only a small part of the deal. Look at Texas A&M, for example. All the money in the world, none of the prominence.
Texas was largely irrelevant in the 1980s and 1990s, had about 10 good years under Mack Brown in the 2000s, then fell back into irrelevance over the past 12 years. Even Georgia, who famously “hadn’t won a national championship in 41 years,” has been nationally relevant every single decade for the past four decades in terms of what it does on the field. Even now, as Georgia seeks its 5th 11+ win season in 7 seasons under Kirby Smart, Texas can’t even get past Texas Tech despite leading them by double digits. And most people wouldn’t even consider Georgia a blue blood. Texas fans consider Texas to be among the Alabamas, Ohio States, and Oklahomas of the world when they’re probably closer to an Auburn or Florida. Take the stress and pressure off of yourself, Texas fans. You’re not a blue blood. You’re not “back.” You’re a middling Power 5 team that can’t cover a single-possession spread against a team it should crush, and this is far from the first time it has happened. I had high hopes Texas might actually be back when they took Alabama down to the wire—turns out they’re lucky if they finish the season ranked, and they have championship talent on that roster. Sad.
It’s time to bounce back from a bad week. We find teams we have confidence in and the best-valued matchups we can find. And good luck to us with that, huh? There are a ton of great matchups this week, however, as most of the Power 5 conferences enter conference play. These games will all be fun to bet on.
Confidence Picks
Washington (-145) @ UCLA
You have two undefeated PAC-12 teams going head to head with similar points scored, points allowed, yards gained, and yards given up. I love a good high school football game. Jokes aside, Washington’s numbers are slightly better AND they’ve played a tougher schedule to date. The spread is tight because we don’t know how good UCLA actually is, but we know Washington is pretty good. You don’t get enough extra value to take -2.5 vs. a straight up win with this kind of uncertainty.
Rutgers +40.5 @ Ohio State (-110)
LOL at this spread. The only team Ohio State has beaten by 40+ this season is Toledo. Rutgers is still a Power 5 team that has put up some solid defensive numbers. This will still likely be a blowout, but 41+ points? I don’t see it.
LSU -9.5 @ Auburn (-110)
Auburn may have beaten Mizzou, but that doesn’t make them less awful than they already are. LSU is actually a solid team this year, all things considered. By no means are they a contender for the SEC West, but Harsin is essentially out at Auburn so he’s just going through the motions now. FWIW, Auburn’s athletic director is likely out as well. There’s so much toxicity within the Auburn program right now I don’t see them getting up for this game. I’m thinking maybe 33-17?
Iowa vs. Michigan, Under 42 (-110)
Michigan has been beating up on a bunch of nobodies. I have no doubt they are a good team, but they haven’t been tested yet. Iowa, on the other hand, is not a good team. They are extremely stingy on defense, but they’re stingy on offense as well. Good thing they don’t live and die by the pass, because I’ve seen triple option teams with higher passing yards per game than these guys. That said, I think this is going to be a ground and pound affair in Iowa City. I can see a 28-10 affair here.
Other Picks
Kentucky (+220) @ Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin is an overrated coach, in my opinion. He gets credit for spicing up Alabama’s offense, but let us not forget that he flamed out at Tennessee, was fired on the tarmac at Southern Cal, and his two best head coaching seasons were at FAU. Mark Stoops, on the other hand, has turned a perennially crappy football school into a respectable program. Taking away the COVID season, which was weird for everyone, Stoops has 6 straight winning seasons, and hasn’t won fewer than 8 games since 2017. Everyone gets excited about offense, but I’m going with the better, defensive-minded coach with the stronger record.
Texas Tech +8 @ Kansas State (-110)
Just like when the wife leaves me home alone to go on a business trip, I can see a two hangover situation going on this weekend. KSU bounced back from its Tulane loss and beat a strong-looking Oklahoma team. Texas Tech won a shootout, at home, against a Texas team that took Alabama down to the wire. Both teams will be flying high going into this game, but Texas Tech is definitely more battle-hardened in terms of who they have played. I don’t know if they have the horses to beat Kansas State at home, but I think they’ll play hard.
Florida State (-260) vs. Wake Forest
FSU is back as a contender in the ACC. They play solid defense and are capable of scoring almost 40 ppg. Wake Forest can put up a lot of yards and a lot of points, but their defense is abysmal. I think TallaNasty, in the middle of a freaking hurricane, will be too much for the Demon Deacons and their passing attack.
Virginia Tech @ University of North Carolina, Under 51.5 (-110)
One of our few hits last week was the VT vs. WVU under. I don’t think Vegas fully appreciates how few points Virginia Tech can score in a game right now. In their defense, they are changing the offensive scheme with an inexperienced play caller. However, their defense is very good statistically, while UNC’s defense is abysmal, most notably against the run (216.5 ypg surrendered!). I think Tech tries to run all over UNC with their solid backfield and hold the ball, while playing solid defense. I’m thinking like a 30-17 game if UNC wins, 24-20 game if Tech wins.
WVU @ Texas, Under 62 (-110)
West Virginia actually has a solid defense, although their points allowed stat doesn’t show it. They’re great against the run, especially. They’re also a great running team, and kill you by moving the sticks until your defense is gassed by the 4th quarter. I can see a 31-27 game. Win or lose, this will be a fun one to watch.