As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese.
Are you being the best degenerate gambler you can be? Here, we meet our standard by making money, and we made some dang good money this past week. We went 8-1 and were right about almost everything.
While we were a garbage time TD (against Georgia’s 4th string defense) away from hitting the above +3880 (38.8x your money) parlay, we made 6.5x our money on another parlay and, frankly, I regret not betting more on that one because it was every confidence pick except for the over/under picks. This was a good week, but our goal is for all of our parlays to hit. That Georgia under was a killer because for most of the 4th quarter it looked like it was going to hit. South Carolina couldn’t move the ball and Georgia was grinding out the clock.
Speaking of Georgia, Georgia is now the slight favorite at +180 to win it all. The offense is an unstoppable force and the defense is an immovable object. To borrow from Paul Finebaum, they look like the elite Alabama teams from Saban’s prime, between 2011-2017. Anyone who got in on the ground floor with me at +400…thank me later. We’re feeling pretty good right now. Of course, it’s a long season, and anything can happen. Stetson Bennett’s Heisman resume continues to grow as he had a Michael Jordan flu game at South Carolina, having thrown up multiple times after being “over hydrated,” pumped up with a stomach full of water like some kind of fraternity’s pledge-master stunt. I mean, Kirby was an SAE at Georgia, so maybe it shouldn’t be that surprising. Anyways, Stets put up over 300 total yards again, with 3 total touchdowns and 0 turnovers. That’s three games in a row now with over 300 total yards, multiple total touchdowns, and zero turnovers, two of those games against Power 5 teams. Get on the train—this offense just hits different.
So what did we learn? In terms of our picks, not much, because we got almost everything right. Auburn is terrible, Mississippi State was overrated, Oregon is actually a good team, Oklahoma is also very good, FSU can finally win football games, and The North Avenue Trade School’s Coach Collins is likely done in Atlanta. Other notes: USC and Michigan look the part, but they ain’t played nobody yet, Pawwllllll! Florida—turrible. Just turrible. Odd thought: If the PAC-12 stayed together instead of USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten, I think it would actually be a conference on the rise. I mean, it can’t go any lower, but Riley’s team looks solid, and Lanning has bounced back from being spanked by UGA. The undefeated Huskies took out a Michigan State team that will likely finish in the top 25. Finally some good coaching hires out West. And it’s all for naught, as far as the PAC-12 is concerned.
So, let’s dive into this week’s picks. It’s another week where I love to hate the matchups…either the picks are not obvious because the matchup is good, or the picks are not good value. Alas, sometimes the most unattractive weeks are the most profitable.
Confidence Picks (LOL…confidence)
Texas -6.5 at Texas Tech (-115): Texas is a good team this season. A great team? That remains to be seen at the Red River Rivalry. But they are way under-ranked for what we have seen so far. Yes, they have a backup QB playing and are playing on the road, but they can score points and their defense looks pretty solid. A team that took a flawed, but talented, Alabama team to the wire being favored by less than a TD over….Texas Tech? If there’s a confidence pick to have this week, it’s this one.
Oregon -7 at Washington State (+100): You want value? This pick is value. Oregon is way better than the Georgia beatdown indicated, and they have proven it. A playoff appearance can still be ahead of them if they can take out Washington, Utah, and USC with style. They’ve had blow out wins in their last two games. I don’t see a situation where they edge out Wazzou. If they win, it’s going to be a statement, because Oregon is far more talented than Wazzou.
Oklahoma (-550) over Kansas State: Oklahoma looks the part, but can they blow out a Kansas State defense that has been pretty stingy to date? We don’t know yet. As much as I want to take Oklahoma -13, this feels like one of those games that Oklahoma wins by 7 or 10. Until we know how good Oklahoma is against a solid Power 5 opponent, we can’t make any conclusion and take the points.
Other Picks
Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia, under 50.5 (-110): I married into Hokie-dom, so I will actually be at this game. If you ever get a chance to go, Virginia Tech is easily one of the best game day environments. This game is a blood feud…the fan bases hate each other. In games like this, with teams within a similar talent range, the favorite means very little. Look at WVU…on paper, they’re a high-powered offense and should be, and are, favored. However…it’s just -1.5. I can’t pick either team and feel comfortable about it. However, I think the Hokies will play to their strengths at home, at night. They’ll play lights out defense, try to control time of possession, and score 14 to 28 points. As stingy as the Hokies defense has been, I can see up to 50 points scored, but if VT’s strategy goes according to plan, the under should hit. I can easily see a 24-20-ish game. Go Hokies.
Tennessee (-400) vs. Florida: I love this game every single year. These two teams also hate each other. AR15 is trash and Florida is a barely functioning SEC program. Right now, I don’t see them beating Tennessee in Knoxville. Is Heupel eventually going to implode like he did at UCF? Maybe. But for now, Tennessee is easily the better team. I’m just not sure if Tennessee is an 11+ point better team.
Arkansas (+105) @ Texas A&M: If this was in College Station instead of a neutral site, maybe I’d lean a little more in TAMU’s direction. However, Arkansas has just proven to be a better overall team than TAMU. It hasn’t always been pretty for Arkansas, but TAMU cannot score points, and Arkansas can. Arkansas’ defense leaves a lot to be desired, but they won’t have to work overtime to stop a flaccid TAMU offense. Pretty decent value here, if you believe Arkansas is the better team.
Mizzou +7 @ Auburn (-110): You have to think Auburn will win something at some point. Harsin is probably long gone by the end of the season, so for now he’s auditioning for his next job. Mizzou, however, also looks pretty rough. By season 3, you need to be taking strides forward, so Drinkwitz has an opportunity for a marquee win here…on the road at Auburn. If not, the seat starts getting a little warm. I don’t know if Mizzou will win, but I think they will cover.
Not Picking At All
Clemson @ Wake Forest: Hate it. Hate everything about it. Especially the energy around this one. I’m not making any picks on this one, but I will be watching. Man, this feels like one Clemson can lose, like NC State last season. Clemson’s still not back to their former glory, but their offense is better….ish? I like their roster better than Wake Forest’s, as well. So I have no idea who will win and the over/under is probably right on the money. But what we learn from this game will be useful in future betting weeks.