Last week was one of the bloodiest Letdown Weeks I’ve seen in the entirety of my college football fandom. Texas A&M, a team many hyped would take the SEC West from Bama, lost to App State. Marshall took down Notre Dame. Wazzou took down Wisconsin. Kansas beat WVU. Auburn snuck by San Jose State on The Plains. Samford held the Dawgs to 33. Bama beat Texas by one after being favored -21.5. However, it wasn’t the matchups that hurt our picks. Oh, no. It was the flaccid offenses in the overs we picked, both which missed by a touchdown each.
So, what did we learn in an early Letdown Week? The 2022 Bama rent-a-team isn’t even the Bama of last year. For all Saban’s sniveling about last year being a rebuilding year, he’s lost the explosiveness on the perimeter and traded it for explosiveness out of the backfield. Bama’s offense looks a little more like Georgia’s did last season, but their defense isn’t as dominant. Will Anderson may have had more penalties than tackles in the Texas game. The Alabama Crimson Off-Side. It’s only week 2, on Letdown Week, though…it might not be a much different situation from Alabama at Florida last year. We learned Ohio State’s win over Notre Dame wasn’t actually that impressive, Texas A&M is still an 8-to-9-win team at best, and Stetson Bennett has gone from being a perceived liability to the only thing that makes Georgia’s offense go. More on that in a moment. Florida is certainly better than it was a year ago, but the Utah win was overhyped and Billy Bob is going to have an up-and-down rebuilding year. Kentucky stays steady…a 10 or 11 win team that *could* have a puncher’s chance against Georgia later this season.
The Stetson Bennett Heisman flyer is still a good value at +1400. What a difference from last season. He’s tucking or throwing away the ball instead of throwing the ball up for grabs. He’s making great throws to elite targets (who make him look even better). He’s using his mobility to make big improvised passing plays. He’s now a true weapon. I doubted him last season, but if he plays this well all season there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be up for a postseason award. Georgia is struggling to find a downhill run game like it has had in the past, meaning Bennett is more important than ever to moving the ball, including padding his stats with additional “cheap” yards on HB swings, jet sweeps, and read options like Bryce Young, Joe Burreaux, et. al. Finally, he has a great storyline for the sports media to tell. Former walk-on, under 6 ft tall, doubted by everyone (even after winning a Natty). No fake dead girlfriend. He’s got everything.
Let’s compare him, so far, to the frontrunner Bryce Young
Bennett: 49/66, 668 pass yds, 5 total TDs, 0 turnovers
Young: 45/67, 408 pass yds, 138 rush yds, 7 total TDs, 0 turnovers
Georgia had a couple drops in the end zone vs Samford that would have given Stetson a couple more TDs. I’m not saying he’s a lock. He might implode halfway through the season. But right now, he’s great value, especially if he gets Georgia back to the playoffs.
That being said, let’s get into this week’s picks.
As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese.
Confidence Picks:
Georgia -24.5 @ South Carolina, Under 52: Spencer Rattler is an absolute bust. I think there’s a 40% chance Georgia shuts out South Carolina. However, even with Stetson Bennett playing the best football of his career, Williams-Brice Stadium is still a tough place to play, especially with that obnoxious asshole of a rooster crowing. I think Georgia likely puts up 30-something points, with an upwards cap of 45. If Georgia gets up big, early, Kirby is going to try to get the downhill running game going which will slow down scoring. Of course, there is a chance that after the Samford game, Georgia’s players will want to make a point and put up 50+ points. There could be some defensive scores, too. In 2 games, Rattler has been sacked 9 times, has thrown 3 interceptions, and has 3 fumbles including 1 lost fumble. But, my money is on Georgia scoring 40-ish points and shutting down Spencer Rattler.
Ole Miss (-700) @ GT, under 60: Georgia Tech is hot garbage. There’s no other way to say it. At least when Paul Johnson was head coach, they had a competitive advantage because no one else ran the triple option. Collins hasn’t put together anything even remotely resembling a winning P5 football team, despite his flat bill caps and corny slogans like “money down.” No idea why that didn’t stack their roster with NFL prospects. Ole Miss is overrated, but they’re a much better team than Tech. 60 is a high over/under, as well. I can see a 38-17 game or even a 45-10 game.
FSU (-125) over Louisville: Louisville snuck by UCF last week, while FSU beat a talented LSU team. If not for some bad clock management by Mike Norvell, they would have won by a touchdown. This is not the Louisville of Bobby Petrino. It’s back to being a mediocre program. FSU is on the rise.
Oklahoma -11 over Nebraska: Oklahoma is one of the few teams that is playing as well as it is supposed to and Nebraska is in turmoil with Scott Frost officially gone. Now, could Nebraska play better under an interim head coach? Maybe, but probably not. I think Oklahoma buries Nebraska 35-10.
Other Picks:
Oregon (-178) over BYU: Oregon bounced back from its Georgia loss and put up 70 points vs a cupcake team during Letdown Week. Normally, that wouldn’t matter, except Oregon actually did move the ball well against Georgia in the opener—they just couldn’t get in the end zone. Oregon is a better team than you think, and offensive coordinator Coach Dilly Dilly is going to want to make a statement against a BYU defense that stuffed Baylor last week and BYU will also be on hangover watch after the big upset.
LSU (+118) vs Mississippi State: Brian Kelly is already well-hated at LSU after his embarrassing loss to FSU, his unlikable demeanor/face, and his numerous gaffes during the offseason. His first SEC game, in Death Valley, is a must-win for him. The roster has the horsepower to do it, and the receivers have something to prove. And, you get underdog odds for LSU at home. It probably won’t be pretty, but my gut says LSU.
Penn State (-160) over Auburn: The Harsin era continues to stubbornly thud along as Auburn slid by San Jose State at home 26-14 this past week. Penn State beat Auburn in Happy Valley last year and that Auburn team was arguably better than this year’s team. Maybe Auburn pulls out the win at home, but right now they don’t look like a team that can put up a fight against a ranked team. Auburn hasn’t beaten a ranked team since Ole Miss on 10/30/2021, and has not beaten one with Finley under center.