How are we feeling, Sports Fans? College football remains undefeated as the greatest sport on the planet.
All things considered, we did not do poorly with our week 1 picks. We went 5-2 overall, 4-2 in high confidence picks. Not going to hit a parlay batting under 1.000, but we learned a lot. Georgia is much more dominant than the offseason narrative hypothesized. Stetson Bennett for Heisman (+1600) is a good flier if you have $5 burning a hole in your pocket. He made some plays that would be playing on repeat on every sports channel if Bryce Young or CJ Stroud had made them. Florida—not a pile of ashes like I thought. They’re a puncher’s chance-type team, or maybe the PAC12 is just that many miles behind even the worst SEC teams. FSU—For the first time in years, this looks like a team that can win 10 games. LSU continues to look like hot garbage. Clemson still has major offensive issues to sort out, and as long as DJ Ukelele is taking the snaps, this is not going to be your 2018 Clemson-type team.
That being said, let’s dig into this week. Full disclosure, there are no “marquee” (read: not cupcake) matchups I really like, but that’s why someone needs to make picks. That said, the term “confidence” needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese.
Confidence(ish) Picks
Arkansas (-310) vs South Carolina: Turns out, South Carolina is a little overhyped. Their “big turnaround” last year wasn’t necessarily a fluke, but Spencer Rattler was supposed to take them to the next level, and instead he threw 2 INT vs. 1 TD against Georgia State and the defense gave up 14 points. Arkansas’ defense didn’t necessarily impress against G5 Cincinnati without Desmond Ridder, which is why I’m not taking the spread, but I think Arkansas will win.
Texas +21 vs Bama (-115): The big narrative is that Bama is on this big revenge tour. “Oh, Kirby Smart beating Bama really pissed them off, and they are going to crush everyone in their path.” I’m sure Bama will be one of the elite teams once again, but I’m not sure this will be like the 2020 team that was the “greatest of all time.” Now, I’m no big believer in the perpetually overrated Texas, but the talent gap isn’t near that of Utah State’s, and being a 20 point underdog at home is a lot. I think Sark is going to try to dominate time of possession to protect his defense, and I don’t think Bama’s passing game is as explosive as it was with Metchie and Williams. Bama probably wins this one, but it’s hard to have confidence they win by three touchdowns. Even so, I wouldn’t play the under, as this could still turn into a shootout a la 2019 Texas-LSU.
Tennessee at Pitt, Over 66 (-110): From a gambling standpoint, I hate this game. I hate it so freaking much. I’m not completely sold on the “Tennessee is a rising star” narrative, as Heupel crashed and burned at UCF after Scott Frost “won a Natty” there. I’m not sold on their defense, especially. So I’d love to bet on Tennessee to win here, but I just don’t know. What I do know is that Pitt is at home and both of these offenses score points. 66 is a high over-under, but both teams have broken that point total in the majority of their last 5 games.
This parlay pays +372. Boring.
Other Picks
Kentucky (+170) at Florida: I know what you are thinking—this Bulldog is letting his immense hate for Florida cloud his vision. Billy Bob Napier had an impressive win against Utah for sure, and Dan Mullen is no longer at Florida to get out-coached again by Mark Stoops. However, I do think Kentucky has a stout defense, and their offense can score on Florida…even in Gainesville. I always count on first year coaches to struggle, because that is typically what happens…they’re inconsistent and have some surprising wins and surprising losses. In his first year, Kirby Smart beat ranked UNC and Auburn but lost to Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech. In Nick Saban’s first year, he beat a ranked Arkansas and Tennessee but lost to Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. You’re transforming a football team. So I think the more stable program wins here. This is a less-confident pick, but I may tack it on a second parlay since Kentucky is the underdog.
Adding this to this week’s parlay makes a +1175 payout.
Arizona State at Oklahoma State, Over 58 (-110): If we learned anything last week, it’s that Oklahoma State has no defense, but has the high powered offense you normally expect from them. I can see this being a 45-20 game or a 35-30 game. But who knows what Arizona State really is…PAC12 hasn’t impressed so far.
All 5 of these pay +2477. That’s more like it.
Good luck, let’s pay for a tank of gas this week