As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese.
We almost went perfect again last week, if Kentucky didn’t suddenly have that dawg in them after losing us money earlier in the season for not having that dawg in them.
To break it all down: Ohio State is still overrated, Saban sold Satan another extension on his soul, Georgia can sleepwalk through a rivalry game with a ton of backups playing, and the 4th playoff slot will be determined in Atlanta.
What do I mean by the latter? Michigan is in because there’s no way Iowa beats them, and Ohio State is out no matter what. The PAC12 winner will be in no matter what, most likely Oregon. FSU will likely win the ACC and be in, and Texas will likely win the Big 12 with ease, meaning the SEC Championship will decide if Texas makes it in. If Georgia beats Alabama, as they should on paper, Georgia stays #1 and is in. If Alabama beats Georgia, and Texas wins the Big 12, it will hard to put in Bama over Texas with the head-to-head loss.
With a playoff spot on the line for the SEC, it will be interesting to see if it impacts officiating any. Bama privilege is real, and as the Tide have become a less formidable representative of the SEC, Bama privilege has been waning. Will that impact whether Bama gets away with all the holds and face-masks and pass interferences it used to get away with against Georgia, or will the SEC put its chips in the Bama basket and hope the committee rewards the SEC champ with a slot by default? I wouldn’t count on the latter. I’m not saying the league is rigged, but sometimes you wonder if there’s a finger on the scales. Tyler Simmons was onside.
I really don’t want to pick any of these games for personal reasons, as having a ton of upsets keeps the door open in case Bama pulls off the unimaginable. I don’t want anyone in the top 6 other than Georgia to win (but I know either Oregon or Washington has to win). Regardless, for the clicks, I’ll be putting in some action on the following:
Oregon (-380) vs Washington
I don’t like the 9.5 points. Washington still won round 1. Even if they lose, they can compete. It’s actually a crappy money line as well, to be quite honest. But I have high confidence in Oregon.
Oklahoma State +14.5 vs Texas
I know Oklahoma State has had some embarrassing losses, but Texas has also had some close calls the past several weeks. I think Oklahoma State can finish within 10. Gundy-Trump 2024.
Georgia -5 vs Alabama
I know Georgia hasn’t done well against Alabama inside the Benz, but I think that
1. Georgia gets up for big games
2. This isn’t the Bama of 2017, 2018, 2020, or 2021–it’s a discount version of the 2017 team, in my opinion
3. Georgia matches up well against Alabama.
After all these years, I think Kirby finally realized you have to stick the stake in the heart of the vampire and don’t stop twisting until you’re up 4 TDs with 5 seconds left in the game.
Michigan vs Iowa, over 35.5
Michigan scores 30+ on almost everyone they play so all Iowa needs is a FG or two.
FSU vs Louisville
Actually, I don’t want to touch this one. I want to say FSU (-140) so bad because it’s the most likely outcome, but I have a weird gut feeling that says it’s too close to call. Don’t want to put my name on the pick. It’s weird, I know. It’s one of two interesting games to watch this weekend, but I’ll be at the SEC Championship, so hopefully I don’t have to worry about this one