As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese.
By the time you read this, I’ll be unsuspended by Twitter, but I don’t know what that means for me yet. I don’t want to be counted as an active user in Twitter’s numbers if I’m in time out for exercising free speech. You know, the free speech Elon Mao-sk preaches about.
Anyways, I don’t know why I continue to trust Lincoln Riley to cap off my parlays. For the 2nd year in a row, betting on Riley’s USC has cost me a +3000 (30x your money) or more parlay. This time, however, he didn’t do it alone. Dan Lanning holds as much as or more blame for this blown parlay than Riley. The over-under on Oregon vs USC was 73.5. The final score was 36-27, only 11 points short. Keep in mind that Lanning left 2 points on the field with TWO failed 2-point conversions. Now the Miss is 9 points. On top of that, at home, Lanning’s offense could only score 5 TDs on the worst defense in the Power 5, despite torching them on multiple explosive plays all day long. On that topic, USC, what is the deal with your defense actually slowing down a good offense for a change? Bear Alexander’s transfer continues to annoy me in multiple ways. I guess what I am saying is, “Kick the stinkin’ PATs, DAN, and score another TD or two.” And Lincoln, offensive guru with a generational QB, you can put up over 30 points on a team that gave up 24 to Washington State at home. It’s not that hard. It’s the PAC12 (for now).
Maybe my requests are unreasonable considering the weird season it’s been, but I was just so dang close. I even snuck in a 6th leg that hit that wasn’t one of my picks. So frustrating.
I guess I’ll just have to settle for being 83% right. That’s way more right than most people. Speaking of which, how bout them freaking Dawgs? Maybe now the haters and losers of which, sadly, there are many, will realize who the real Natty front runner is. After Mizzou bodied Tennessee, that win looks way better, and Lane Kiffin was lucky to not get left on the tarmac (again) after losing by 5 TDs in Athens after taking little shots at Georgia all week.
Tennessee is either going to be reeling or dangerous this weekend, playing in Neyland against what will very likely be a #1 Georgia, and I don’t like it one bit. Georgia could win this one by 90 or 1, or could even (very unlikely but possibly) lose. It’s great that UGA’s offense is finally getting healthy, but I can see Heupel stealing the Auburn game plan and just killing us with read-option counters on 3rd and long all day, especially with our young linebackers in there. I don’t like that kind of uncertainty with money on the line, even with Georgia favored by a reasonable -10. Worst of all, this game will also provide Alabama with some great game tape, since they have become a better version of Tennessee with Milroe starting to use his legs more and throwing to wide open receivers. So no, I’m not picking the Georgia game this week.
However, here’s what I am picking. Let’s keep the streak going:
Mizzou -11 (-110) vs Florida (or take the -460 money line if you want to be conservative)
Top 10 Mizzou, member of the Beasts of the East (as opposed to the haters and losers of the “SEC Best” of the SEC West), is a team built very much on the same principles that Georgia is—elite line of scrimmage play, physicality in the defensive backfield, and creating space for playmakers. Paper tiger Florida is no match for them. Even if the final score is close, Mizzou will control the game.
Washington (-105) at Oregon State
An almost even money line on an undefeated playoff contender at a solid, but not elite, Oregon State? Sign me up.
Utah (+100) at Arizona
Arizona is a solid team, but I think Utah wins a close one. Utah has been consistently good all season, and for multiple seasons. This is a bet on Kyle Whittingham.
Duke (-185) at UVA
I don’t care if Riley Leonard is out, UVA won’t beat Dook, even at home. What about UVA’s last 3 games show they even have a shot?
Louisville (-110) at Miami
The only reason this line is even close is that Miami gave FSU a scare this past week. Louisville will run the ball down their throat and throw Miami back into the scrap heap.
Virginia Tech (-150) vs NC State
Last year, a bad Virginia Tech team entered the 4th quarter at NC State up 11 in a low-scoring game. They gave up 12 unanswered points and lost the game. Not going to happen in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech has only lost one game in Blacksburg this season, and that was a freak rain game and a totally different team than the one that emerged from the Pitt game. Pry wants a bowl game and a winning record to end the season to show the money men some momentum in his turnaround. And, as I’ve said, right now I like the Hokies against anyone in their weight class.