As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese.
We were one game away from perfection this past week. As it turns out, Kentucky just doesn’t have that dawg in them anymore. They used to be a physical team with a hard edge. Now, Stoops is a crybaby who begs his fans for NIL money while getting creamed by the Beasts of the East at home and on the road. Still, it’s always brutal for that 6th leg to be the one that kills the parlay.
This weekend, we have another great slate of games to lose money on, but I hope that after a 6-2 week a couple of weeks ago and now a 4-1 week, we’re getting close to hitting a big one. Let’s cook.
Georgia Tech (+105) at UVA
First, and foremost, UVA is absolute garbage. I don’t care that they beat UNC and lost close to Miami in overtime. They’re so bad. Secondly, Georgia Tech is an improving football team, while UVA is the same level of bad every week. Haynes King is still the good quarterback we knew he was when he committed to Texas A&M, and this is too favorable of a money line to pass up.
Arkansas +5.5 at UF (-110)
Florida, once again, is a paper tiger. Billy Napier showed some desperation against Georgia and it ended up costing him. Morale, no doubt, has to be low. Now they have to defend The Swamp against an Arkansas team that is starving for a win and has lost to each of the 3 ranked teams they have played this season by one possession each. Arkansas may lose, but they’ll be in the game in the 4th quarter
Ole Miss (-160) vs Texas A&M
This pick may be a little self-serving, but here we go. I am not a Lane Kiffin believer. I think he is an overrated coach for the attention he gets, and at best he will put together solid seasons, but not “historic” seasons. He’s an 8-to-10-win coach, not an 11-plus-win coach. That said, Jimbo got lucky last week facing an imploding South Carolina, and now has to play a 50/50 game on the road. I like Ole Miss to stroll into Athens next week a top 10 team.
Oklahoma (-230) at Oklahoma State
Kansas shocked the planet last week by beating Oklahoma, albeit in Lawrence. Oklahoma State is hot, for sure, but Oklahoma has been dominant at times this season. I don’t know, this is a low-confidence pick, but I am feeling a lot better about Oklahoma than Oklahoma State based on the eye test. Then again, it is Bedlam, so anything can happen. But, gun to my head, Oklahoma to win by as little as 1 and by as much as 90.
Cal at Oregon, Over 59 (-110)
Oregon is #6 in the CFP rankings. Dan Lanning can sniff the playoffs from here. Oregon will put up 40-50 points and Cal can probably put up 20+ points on Oregon’s streaky defense.
Georgia -13.5 vs Mizzou (-130)
I bought a point again, but only to be smart. 14.5 is an insulting spread to anyone who is Albert Einstein when doing math for football but Floyd Mayweather when it comes to any other kind of math. Anyways, the worst thing that could have happened to Mizzou for this game has happened—Georgia is #2 in the first CFP ranking. Let us not forget what happened the last time Georgia was snubbed by the first CFP ranking and played a hyped team at home…
Mizzou deserves to be where they are right now. Their offense is potent, scoring 34 ppg (Georgia went to the Natty in 2017 scoring 35 ppg), but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Of course, that didn’t matter last year, as Mizzou’s front 7 punched up and held a high-flying Georgia offense to fewer than 30 points and almost pulled off the upset. And that’s really what the hype behind this game is all about, right? Last season? Is Drink just one of those coaches who has Kirby’s number, now? Or was last year the result of a bottle of lightning and a wild, rowdy Mizzou home crowd jamming to “Narco” every 3rd down? Now, Mizzou has to play in Athens for a 3:30 PM game, with sunset probably hitting right before the 4th quarter begins. I think Georgia’s feast-or-famine offense finds a feast, and the crowd creates a nightmare of pre-snap penalties for Cook and company against a defense you don’t want to be 3rd and long against. Dawgs by 24.