Big Pick Energy: Week 1
Not to toot my own horn, but I am undefeated this season on my picks. My only Week 0 pick, Northwestern +13.5, hit. Betting against National Champion Head Coach Scott Frost versus a Power 5 team is a solid bet.
I know everyone on the damn planet does gambling picks, like Outkick, Barstool, etc. etc. etc. However, I’m not just about blind, reckless betting. I have high confidence picks, value picks, and sometimes moderate confidence picks. I’ll split my picks into either category and let other bettors decide if they like my reasoning or think I’m full of shit. For what it’s worth, my high confidence picks are ones I am actually putting money on, usually in a parlay.
As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese.
Let’s get this bread.
At the beginning of the season, I bet Georgia +400 to win the National Championship. I didn’t put a lot on it, but I think it is pretty good value, especially with Bama two wide receiver injuries away from a rebuilding year. Everyone on the offense has played significant starter snaps except for two new OL, three new starting RBs, and Arik Gilbert, who is a freaking beast. That’s 7 to 8 returning starters on offense. Defensively, you have your sack leader Robert Beal returning, as well as Nolan Smith at EDGE, Ringo at CB, Smith at S, and Jalen Carter at DT. Replacing six guys might seem a steep task, but not necessarily with the way Georgia rotates its defense, especially, to get guys reps.
My high confidence picks: I put in a 6 team parlay with the following
WVU @ Pitt, Over 51 (-110): WVU will want to test out their new QB JT Daniels, and Pitt has scored 30+ points in 7 of its last 10 games, with a commitment to the pass that I expect to continue. Even if it is a blowout, a 35-17 win hits the over.
Georgia -17 over Oregon (-110): While Dan Lanning is an excellent coach inheriting a talented team, I think Georgia will come out fired up, as they’ve heard all offseason they won’t be as good as last year. Also, Bo Nix does not have a stellar record against Georgia’s defense. I didn’t bet it, but if you want to take a flyer for an extra leg on a parlay, I like the under 53 here, too. I don’t think Oregon scores more than one touchdown, if that, and Georgia probably won’t break 40 unless they’re on a mission.
Cincinnati @ Arkansas, Arkansas (-250) & Under 51.5 (-110): Luke Fickell has had a solid defense the past few years vs. Power 5 teams. He held 2020 Georgia & 2021 Bama under 30 points. However, he didn’t win either game. I think Arkansas has the talent and coaching to win this game, but it will be low scoring. I can see something like a 24-14 Hogs win here.
Utah (-140) @ Florida: What is there to say? Florida has been a dead fish since the 2020 SEC Championship. Utah has key players returning and is likely going to be a frontrunner to win the PAC12, while Florida, unlike Alabama, is actually “rebuilding” and even the best first year coaches tend to struggle mightily, especially versus ranked competition. I took Utah straight up instead of the -2.5 because the difference between -140 and -110 doesn’t really make up for the risk in case it is a 1 or 2 point win. This has the feel of a wacky-scoring game.
Ohio State (-700) vs. Notre Dame: Admittedly, this pick is horrible value. HORRIBLE. Ohio State, at home, vs. a top 5 team only offering tOSU -700? While Columbus hasn’t necessarily provided THE Ohio State with the kind of home field advantage it should have since 2017, I’m counting on the fact that Notre Dame has a new head coach and that it is, as usual, over-ranked by the college football deep state. We will also see if Ohio State is as good as the entire college football media complex says it is, which means a guaranteed National Championship appearance.
This parlay pays out +1808
Other picks
There really aren’t that many more interesting or bettable games in week 1, to be honest. Penn State @ Purdue is going to be too close to call and I don’t want to touch that game. Maybe you can put together a parlay of all the cupcake games and make 5% on your money. However, if you’re looking to burn some money on non-obvious picks like Oklahoma State -2000 over Central Michigan, here is the only one I like:
FSU +3 vs. LSU (-110): FSU looks like it’s coming together as a functional program (although Duquesne was an LOL opponent) while LSU has a first year head coach with several problems to fix on the roster and, frankly, with himself. I think FSU could pull the upset, or keep it way too close for LSU fans. But, I personally wouldn’t put money on it. Crazy to think only 3 years after the Joe Burrow Natty we’re talking about FSU keeping it close with LSU.
I wish you the best of luck, let’s rotate our losses out of crypto and into football gambling.