Big Pick Energy, CFP Quarterfinal: Round of 32
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As a disclaimer, bet at your own risk, I make no guarantees of accuracy or profit, these are simply my picks and my opinion, yada yada yada, legalese. Please note that lines may have changed since the writing of this column
How about that expanded playoff, huh? Great games in round 1…I think JMU came within 3 TDs of Oregon. Don’t worry, we can make the playoff even fairer next year by expanding it to 64 teams. Imagine how great that would be…32 first round bowl games. We could call it…December Madness.
I was genuinely surprised by how poorly Oklahoma and Texas A&M played. You get a playoff game at home against a team you are better than and your offense craps the bed? Unbelievable. I don’t know what Oklahoma’s OC was thinking trying to have Mateer be the entire offense against a defense that struggles against the run. Why are we passing 41 times and running 10 quarterback draws while only handing off to the running back 11 times? Bama isn’t that physical. Be physical. Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s offense simply flatlined while their defense played an outstanding game against Miami’s speed and finesse. A lot of people will try to use this game as a “gotcha” against the SEC, and act like Texas A&M was a top 3 SEC team, but the truth is that Texas A&M was 0-1 this season against SEC teams that finished the season ranked. They were top 50% in the conference…OU, Texas, Vandy, Ole Miss, and even Alabama were objectively better teams. Maybe we need to return to divisions, GREG (Sankey). At least then each team plays a minimum two playoff contenders each season.
The good news is that none of the above matters because only one dangerous team made it through the first round, and they’re the only upset we have picked for “round 2” of the playoff. Let’s look at the picks:
Ohio State -9 vs. Miami
I still maintain that Miami is not that good. They have some elite playmakers and play well when they’re “on,” but their on-the-field results are mixed. They also haven’t played a team as talented as Ohio State this season. This is my riskiest pick, so I wouldn’t put this as the last leg in a big parlay, but I think Ohio State wins 21-10.
Indiana -7 vs Bama
Just like Miami, I’m still not convinced that Alabama is that good. What happened in the SEC Championship Game is probably what should have happened earlier this season in Athens. They’re still very talented, but they’re sloppy at times and a good team can take advantage of that as we saw against Georgia. They also struggle to run the ball, meaning Indiana can tee off on Ty Simpson. I can see a 30-21 game here and a lot of SEC haters chirping.
Georgia -6.5 vs. Ole Miss
If the Georgia we saw against Alabama is the Georgia we’re getting in the playoffs, it’s a wrap. I don’t care who they’re playing. We have more blue chips on roster than 2021 Georgia and they’re getting better every week. Kirby is more locked in than he was last year when he was dealing with a family tragedy. I’m sure Ole Miss’ Lane-less coaching staff is at least good enough to throw some new wrinkles into the game plan, but Georgia’s defense is better at tackling, coverage, and rushing the passer than they were when Ole Miss came to Athens. We’re about to find out if Kiffin truly was the mastermind behind Ole Miss’ offensive success, that’s for sure.
Oregon -2 at Texas Tech
Who has Texas Tech actually played? Utah? BYU? Not that Oregon’s schedule was that much tougher, but after seeing how Texas A&M underperformed because they didn’t play anybody, I’m starting to wonder how good Texas Tech actually is. Meanwhile, Oregon’s offense looks supercharged. Oregon wins a shootout 42-30.